Renewables are rising fast, but not fast enough for net zero. What could delay the shift, and what must change to stay on track?
Renewables are not on track to dominate the global energy mix by 2050. A study from Indian Institute of Technology Madras finds that, at current growth rates, they are likely to cross 50% only between the late 2040s and early 2050s—and possibly later if demand keeps rising.
The analysis shows that only much faster expansion, backed by very high investment, could shift this timeline forward to the mid-to-late 2030s. In slower growth scenarios, renewables may not overtake fossil fuels even within this century.
This matters because fossil fuels still dominate global energy. Despite steady growth in renewables over the past decade, they account for a small share of total energy use, while coal, oil, and gas continue to supply the majority and drive most CO₂ emissions.
The study also points to a gap in current projections. It models both constant energy demand and a modest annual increase, but does not factor in future demand from areas like AI and data centres, which could further delay the transition.
India sits at the center of this challenge. It is among the largest emitters in total terms but remains low on a per-person basis. At the same time, it must expand infrastructure, grow its economy, and improve electricity access, especially in rural regions—all of which increase energy demand.
The country has set a target of reaching 485 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 across solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy. Meeting this goal is important not just for domestic growth, but also for global climate progress.
To understand how the transition could unfold, the researchers evaluated multiple growth scenarios using data from agencies like the International Energy Agency and International Renewable Energy Agency. The key question was when renewables could exceed half of the global energy mix, along with the emissions avoided and investment required.
Their findings suggest that renewables alone will not be enough to meet net-zero timelines. Fossil fuels are expected to remain part of the system for decades, especially in developing economies.
The study points to a broader path forward: scaling carbon capture, improving energy storage through batteries, pumped hydro, and hydrogen, increasing efficiency, and upgrading grids to handle variable renewable power.
