EVs are taking over roads, yet growth is far from equal. China races ahead, the US slows,
and India sparks a surprise surge. Who will dominate next?
EVs are taking over roads, yet growth is far from equal. China races ahead, the US slows,
and India sparks a surprise surge. Who will dominate next?
The global electric vehicle (EV) market is entering a new phase of uneven but decisive growth. In China, more than half of all new vehicle sales are now electric, making it the clear global leader. In contrast, the United States (US) is witnessing a temporary slowdown, driven by policy uncertainty, shifting tax rules, inflation, and higher interest rates.
Even so, over 370,000 EVs were sold in the US in the first quarter of 2025 alone, lifting market share to nearly 9.6%. Meanwhile, emerging markets such as India are accelerating, supported by low-cost models and rising urban demand. Canada has also experienced slower growth, while parts of Europe and South Korea are seeing stronger uptake with more affordable offerings.
Over the next three to five years, adoption trends will diverge but continue to rise. In the US, short-term headwinds linked to tariffs and reduced incentives may persist, yet the long-term direction remains clear. Electrification is expected to account for more than 20% of new car sales, as fuel prices rise and technologies such as robotaxis and Level 3, 4, and 5 autonomous vehicles move into wider commercial deployment. China is likely to maintain strong momentum, backed by policy support and high consumer acceptance.
India, however, could see the fastest relative growth, driven by urban mobility, especially for two- and three-wheelers and passenger EVs, as charging networks improve and battery prices decline. Advances in fast charging, software-defined vehicles, and vehicle-to-grid integration are also making EVs more practical and cost-effective.
Policy and manufacturing investments continue to shape these trajectories. In the US, tariffs, including 10% duties on vehicle imports from Japan, South Korea, and Europe, and 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, are raising costs and disrupting supply chains. The withdrawal of certain state-level incentives has further softened demand.
By contrast, China’s domestic manufacturers are expanding their dominance, while Western OEMs now hold a smaller share of the market. India is strengthening its position through Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, including a $3.1 billion programme for automobiles and components and a `180 billion initiative to build 50GWh advanced battery capacity, reinforcing local manufacturing and supply chains.
Beyond infrastructure and policy, product trends are evolving as well. Battery-electric and hybrid vehicles are leading market growth, with consumers increasingly choosing mid-size models over very small or very large vehicles. This shift reflects practical mobility and logistics needs, particularly in North America and India. Together, these factors indicate that while regional growth rates may vary, the global EV transition is firmly underway.
| Challenges in launching a new EV model |
| • Talent shortage. Companies struggle to find engineers with hands-on experience in emerging EV systems • Supplier onboarding. Tight timelines require NDAs, regulatory approvals, system integration, and engineering alignment, often delaying production • Coordination bottlenecks. Many Indian suppliers are willing to participate, but slow collaboration slows integration timelines • Cost pressures. Tariffs and high interest rates, especially in the US, increase production costs and affect adoption • Strategic outsourcing. Sourcing select components from cost-competitive markets like India can reduce operational pressure and support wider EV adoption |
Key technology and infrastructure trends shaping EV adoption
Charging infrastructure remains the single most important factor in accelerating EV adoption over the next five years. In North America, networks are expanding but still face bottlenecks. The International Energy Agency estimates that the United States had around 204,000 public chargers by 2024. However, progress under the $7.5 billion federal charging programme has been slow, with only a few hundred charging ports delivered by mid-2025. The rollout of the North American Charging Standard is helping improve interoperability between fast chargers, especially for DC Level 3 charging, which is critical for long-distance travel. Governments are also focusing on grid integration through software platforms and energy management systems to ensure charging demand does not strain power networks.
In India, growth has been rapid. The public charging network expanded from just a few thousand stations in 2022 to tens of thousands by late 2025, reflecting strong compound annual growth. Even so, infrastructure remains a constraint. Estimates suggest that India may require around 1.3 million charging stations by 2030 to meet projected demand. Fast DC charging, battery-swapping pilots for two-wheelers and three-wheelers, and solar-powered charging stations connected to smart grids are emerging as important trends.
Battery innovation will also shape adoption. Solid-state batteries promise longer driving range and lower maintenance, reducing operating costs and making EVs more practical as fuel prices rise, although replacement complexity remains a key limitation. Vehicle-to-grid systems add value by allowing EVs to feed electricity back into the grid, supporting energy balancing and improving grid stability.
On the cost front, lithium-iron phosphate batteries dominate the mass market due to their balance of cost and performance. Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a lower-cost alternative, offering faster charging and shorter refuelling times. Solid-state batteries are expected to remain focused on premium, high-density applications, while sodium-ion technology could help reduce costs for mass-market vehicles.
Indian EV manufacturers face distinct challenges compared to global players. Infrastructure gaps continue to affect consumer confidence, especially for long-distance travel. Surveys indicate that many buyers still perceive EVs as expensive, with charging time and limited station availability adding to hesitation, thereby slowing adoption relative to mature global markets.
| Embedding sustainability without slowing EV launches |
| • Integrate early. Identify regulatory and homologation dependencies at the start • Cross-functional collaboration. Align engineering, operations, and compliance teams • Proactive planning. Anticipate risks and plan around performance, quality, cost, and timelines • Data-driven risk registers. Track potential issues to avoid late-stage surprises • Sustainable delivery. Balance environmental goals with on-time product launches |
Supply chain and technology gaps are another concern. Advanced battery engineering is still in its early stages in India, with more than 70% of lithium-ion cell requirements imported mainly from China, South Korea, and Japan. Global manufacturers such as Tesla, Lucid, and BYD already offer vehicles with ranges approaching 700 kilometres per charge, setting performance benchmarks that Indian models are yet to match.
There is also room to advance customer experience and vehicle design, particularly in features such as compact headlamps using adaptive matrix LED or micro-lens technologies integrated with electronics, sensors, and advanced optics.
| Industries that will grow with EV expansion |
| • Component manufacturing. Especially in India, driven by competitive pricing and faster lead times • Engineering and validation services. Including outsourced simulation and data annotation • Charging infrastructure. Hardware manufacturing, installation networks, and home power systems • Fleet connectivity and telematics. Predictive maintenance, cybersecurity, and over-the-air updates • Data and analytics. Performance monitoring, maintenance optimisation, and customer experience insights |
How programme management is powering large-scale EV launches
Strong programme management has emerged as a key differentiator in large-scale EV launches. Traditional automakers such as Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis have historically worked on four- to five-year development cycles, while newer companies like Tesla and Lucid have reduced timelines to two to three years, making structured programme management a critical enabler of competitive market entry.
At its core, effective programme management requires disciplined integration and governance across hardware, software, validation, testing, homologation, and regulatory milestones. It also requires clearly defined programme gates aligned with executive leadership, structured risk management systems with formal escalation paths, and contingency frameworks designed to protect schedule, cost, and quality objectives. Progress is measured not only by gate adherence and schedule performance but also by confirmation that engineering validation, certification, and customer requirements remain aligned at launch.
Real-world examples show how this discipline supports scale. Rivian’s electric delivery van, launched in 2023, was designed as a flexible platform adapted for logistics, emergency services, and other fleet applications. Such expansion depends on data-driven decisions using telematics, demand forecasts, cost reviews, and KPI dashboards to improve rollout speed, maintain transparency, and build customer trust.
Programme management practices differ between startups and established OEMs. Large OEMs typically move from T0 to T3 parts across multiple validation stages prior to homologation, whereas startups often compress this validation pathway and may deploy early-stage parts directly for design verification and certification to accelerate time-to-market. This shortens launch timelines but increases risk, making disciplined supply chain development, strategic outsourcing decisions, and rigorous supplier coordination essential to balancing speed with validation integrity and quality assurance.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping programme management. AI tools, including generative AI, help identify risks and interdependencies early and summarise large volumes of data from design, manufacturing, supply chain, and logistics into clear insights. When integrated with project and analytics platforms such as Jira and Tableau, AI-driven frameworks provide real-time portfolio visibility and milestone deviation tracking for executive leadership teams. Customised AI models can track specific vehicle categories, such as two- or three-wheelers, and proactively flag deviations from programme baselines to improve reporting speed, risk-detection accuracy, and data-driven decision-making.
Emerging practices further strengthen the execution of the EV programme. Platforming core capabilities enables reuse of hardware architectures, software stacks, and operational playbooks across regions, materially reducing cycle time and cost while preserving validation consistency. Ecosystem partnerships with utilities, component suppliers, validation firms, digital service providers, and fleet connectivity partners are increasingly central to scalable execution under compressed schedules. Strong data governance and unified telematics systems enhance demand forecasting and customer insight. Monitoring early signals of incentive shifts, trade policy adjustments, or evolving technical standards enables programme teams to respond early and reduce schedule disruption.
The global EV market is growing at different speeds across regions. China is leading, the US is slowing, and India is accelerating with affordable models and government support. Making EVs work at scale requires more than vehicles alone; it depends on charging networks, battery innovation, and disciplined programme execution. By combining data, AI, partnerships, and platform-based approaches, companies can launch faster without compromising quality, helping EVs reach more users and support the transition to cleaner transportation.
Jagruti Dhande is Senior Technical Program Manager, Lucid Motors
This article is based on an exclusive conversation with Jagruti Dhande, Senior Technical Program Manager (TPM), Lucid Motors. It has been transcribed and edited by Nidhi Agarwal and Shubha Mitra from EFY.
